Switching to Clean(er) Technologies in a Stochastic Environment
Abstract / Resumen
This paper develops a theoretical model analyzing the optimal timing of switching from fossil-fuel-based energy to cleaner technologies in a stochastic environment. The economy consists of two interacting sectors: a backstop-production sector (e.g., solar panels), which uses both fossil fuels and backstop energy, and a consumption sector that initially relies exclusively on fossil fuels but can adopt a hybrid (cleaner) technology by incurring a fixed, irreversible investment cost. Both pollution accumulation and backstop accumulation are assumed to be stochastic. Our results indicate that the optimal timing for switching is significantly influenced by technological parameters, particularly the dependence on fossil fuels in post-switch production and the extent of technological gains in backstop manufacturing. Specifically, reducing fossil-fuel reliance and improving backstop technology both accelerate the adoption of cleaner technologies. We also find that uncertainty can either accelerate or delay adoption, depending on technological progress and intertemporal substitution preferences. These findings underscore the importance of policies that decrease fossil fuel dependence while fostering innovation in renewable energy technologies.
Violence against women and its association with education levels in Mexico
Abstract / Resumen
In this study, we analyze the association between education and intimate partner violence in Mexico. Using data from the country’s 2021 National Survey on the Dynamics of Household Relationships (ENDIREH 2021), we construct a violence severity index that allows us both to distinguish between types of violence and to measure their intensity. Through the application of multinomial logit models, our analysis suggests a negative association between women’s level of education and their experience of violence from a male partner, while also highlighting the significant influence of educational differences within couples on the incidence of such violence. We also find that employment interacts with educational imbalances to exacerbate vulnerabilities to violence under certain conditions, particularly when coupled with educational imbalances within relationships. Finally, we find that younger generations, particularly Millennials, face a heightened risk of severe violence. Our results underline the need to promote education strategies that focus not only on raising the education level of women but also on fostering educational equality within couples as a means to combat gender violence in Mexico and in similar contexts worldwide.
Falta de confianza en los partidos políticos en México: un análisis de la Encuesta Nacional de Cultura Cívica, 2020
Abstract / Resumen
La desafección política propicia un distanciamiento afectivo, cognitivo y conductual de la ciudadanía respecto al sistema representativo. Una de las manifestaciones de este llamado “síndrome actitudinal” es la desconfianza hacia los partidos políticos. ¿Qué variables están asociadas a esta actitud hacia los partidos políticos en México? Utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Cultura Cívica de 2020, este artículo propone un modelo de regresión logística para explicar la falta de confianza en estas organizaciones. Se contrasta empíricamente distintas perspectivas teóricas que postulan sendas variables explicativas a este fenómeno, como los valores político-culturales, la evaluación racional de la confiabilidad (trustworthiness) de los objetos políticos y su desempeño institucional. Los resultados muestran que una baja valoración de la integridad y capacidad de los partidos, así como la insatisfacción con la democracia, actúan como predictores de la falta de confianza. Al mismo tiempo, la percepción de legitimidad de algunas normas fundamentales del régimen democrático (apoyo difuso), como el sistema de partidos, el sistema y la democracia electorales, tiene un efecto positivo en la probabilidad de confiar en los partidos políticos.
Electricity generation portfolios in Mexico: Environmental, economic, and policy implications
Abstract / Resumen
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the environmental and economic impact of the Electricity Generation Portfolios (EGPs) projected by Mexico’s Secretariat of Energy (SENER 2018) for the years 2023 to 2032. We use real data to calibrate the mean and standard deviation of the unit costs of energy generation and portfolio theory to obtain the efficient EGPs. We develop a methodology for the parametric construction of the efficient frontier of EGPs comprised of eight technologies. In the efficient portfolios, we find the dominant technology in electricity generation to be solar photovoltaics (SP), the share of which in the total ranges from 26.8% to 100%. The efficient EGPs might emit less than half as much CO2 as the projected EGPs. Their electricity generation cost is between 95.4% and 97.4% of that of the projected EGPs. Therefore, the projected EGPs for the years 2023–2032 are not efficient. This analysis supports the case for increasing the proportion of SP in Mexico’s generation portfolio.
Violencia contra las mujeres y su asociación con los niveles de educación: un análisis de la Encuesta Nacional sobre la Dinámica de las Relaciones de los Hogares, México 2021
Abstract / Resumen
Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar la asociación entre el nivel educativo y la incidencia de violencia en las mujeres, utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional sobre la Dinámica de las Relaciones en los Hogares (Endireh) 2021 de México. Se enfoca en mujeres mayores de 15 años y emplea modelos logit para investigar esta asociación. Los resultados revelan una asociación negativa entre la educación y la violencia contra las mujeres. Además, se encuentra que la violencia actual está asociada positivamente con la violencia experimentada por la mujer durante su infancia y con la edad, y que las mujeres de las regiones centro y sur de México son las más propensas a sufrir violencia por parte de sus parejas. Los hallazgos de este estudio sugieren que el acceso a la educación, libre e igualitaria, podría jugar un papel crucial en la prevención y erradicación de la violencia contra la mujer.
Desigualdad y Movilidad Social Educativa en México. ¿Qué cambia con el COVID-19?
Detalles
Capítulo de libro que analiza el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 sobre los indicadores de movilidad social y desigualdad educativa en el contexto de la población mexicana.
Asociación entre síntomas inflamatorios y síntomas depresivos en la población mexicana: un análisis econométrico
Detalles
Análisis empírico formal de corte microeconométrico y epidemiológico que explora la relación causal y de asociación estadística entre marcadores inflamatorios físicos y sintomatología clínica depresiva utilizando encuestas nacionales de salud.
Interrupción legal del embarazo en la Ciudad de México: el papel de la educación
Detalles
Investigación econométrica aplicada que explora los determinantes socioeducativos asociados a las decisiones reproductivas e interrupción del embarazo en el marco legal de la CDMX.
Discriminación de Género en el Mercado Laboral, Evidencia Experimental
Detalles
Estudio de diseño experimental y econométrico para analizar sesgos de género en procesos de reclutamiento y brechas salariales en el mercado laboral mexicano.
Association between School Performance and Anemia in Adolescents in Mexico
Abstract / Resumen
Abstract: In school age children and adolescents, anemia might cause lower cognitive function and attention span, which in turn could diminish human capital accumulation. As children born in low-income households are more likely to be anemic, this may prevent many individuals from overcoming the intergenerational poverty traps. In this paper, we used data from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 and focused on a sample of adolescents between 12 and 19 years of age to study the relationship between attending school without delay—our proxy for school performance—and anemia. We found a statistically significant association between the two variables. If this relationship is causal, the economic burden linked to the loss of school years could well exceed the costs associated with programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of anemia in vulnerable populations. Our results provide additional support to the existing literature on anemia as a significant barrier to school achievement.
Evaluating India’s energy targets using real options approach
Abstract / Resumen
Purpose – The authors formulate India’s energy targets in light of pushing for renewable energy sources and reducing the dependence on imported coal. Share of imported coal in electricity generation has been approximately 10 per cent in recent years. While investments in renewables have grown in recent years as seen in installed capacities, coal-fired electricity generation has grown because of rising demand for electricity. The purpose of this study is to find a planner solution when high global coal prices force greater investments in renewable energies. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use real options approach where global coal prices are the stochastic variable. They present an optimal stopping problem and solving the problem backward, the revenues from continuing with the current energy generation mix and those from replacing imported coal with wind and solar is compared for each period. Findings – The “trigger price” for global coal prices when it is optimal for the social planner to invest in additional wind and solar capacities is found. Trigger prices is the threshold when investment must be undertaken whatever be the future evolution of coal prices; this gives the problem a value of waiting. India cannot afford to wait to invest if faced with strict short-term goals. Originality/value – The work evaluates India’s domestic targets and its Paris Agreement goals in light of using more of wind and sun and replacing imported coal. Various data sources (government reports, research articles) are consulted to predict shares of electricity from various sources in future and the authors find the operating costs and the investment costs associated with switching to renewables.
Abstract / Resumen
In this paper we extend Rabin’s (1993) model of fairness equilibria to groups of individuals and define a new solution concept we name “group-fairness equilibria.” We model two games with two players, where each player in each game belongs to one of two groups. We analyze how the outcome of one game may affect the outcome of the other and how the existence of one individual with a particular grudge or liking towards the player she is playing with can impact the outcome of both games. We analyze some applications of our model.
La diferencia salarial entre mujeres y hombres, ¿discriminación o diferencias en gustos por competir? Evidencia Experimental
Detalles
Diseño e implementación de experimentos de laboratorio para medir preferencias competitivas por género y contrastarlas con las diferencias de ingreso observadas en campo.
Estudio empírico sobre el tipo de cambio mxn/usd: movimiento browniano geométrico versus proceso varianza-gamma
Abstract / Resumen
En este artículo examinamos el comportamiento del mercado cambiario en México, el cual se caracteriza por movimientos extremos muy frecuentes ocasionados por la información generada dentro del mercado financiero y el entorno macroeconómico internacional. Modelamos estos movimientos extremos utilizando un proceso varianza gamma, el cual nos permite capturar el sesgo y el exceso de curtosis de los rendimientos del tipo de cambio. Conclimos que, en general, este proceso ajusta mejor a los datos que el movimiento browniano geométrico basado en la densidad normal– y nos permite estimar con mayor precisión el Valor en Riesgo (VaR). Mostramos, además, que el ajuste mejora conforme aumenta la ventana temporal utilizada para calcular los rendimientos del mercado cambiario. Finalmente, realizamos un backtesting del VaR mediante la prueba de Kupiec.
El género del empleo en América Latina
Detalles
Estudio comparativo y estructural sobre la inserción laboral de mujeres en las industrias de América Latina y las brechas de segregación ocupacional horizontal y vertical.
On modeling fossil fuel prices: geometric Brownian motion vs. variance-gamma process
Abstract / Resumen
It is very common in the literature to assume that fossil fuels prices follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. However, the GBM is an imperfect process in the sense that it cannot capture correctly the frequent extreme movements in fossil fuel prices caused by the information generated within domestic and international markets. In this paper, we use fossil fuel index data to compare the performance of the GBM, which is based on normal density, with that of the variance-gamma (VG) process, which allows us to capture the skewness and the excess of kurtosis of price returns. We show that the VG process fits the data better than does the GBM, as indicated by several goodness-of-fit tests.
Redes Sociales como herramienta para predecir el resultado de las elecciones presidenciales 2018 en México
Detalles
Estudio aplicado de análisis de sentimiento y minería de texto en redes sociales como herramienta complementaria para el modelado y pronóstico del comportamiento electoral.
A theory of sequential group reciprocity
Abstract / Resumen
Games that appear to be independent, involving none of the same players, may be related by emotions of reciprocity between the members of the same groups. In the real world, individuals are members of groups and want to reward or punish those groups whose members have been kind or unkind to members of their own. In this paper, we extend Dufwenberg and Kirchsteiger’s model of sequential reciprocity (Games Econ Behav 47(2):268–298, 2004) to groups of individuals and define a new ‘‘sequential group reciprocity equilibrium’’ for which we prove its existence. We study the case of two games with two players in each game, where each player belongs to the same group as a player in the other game. We show that when the payoffs of one game are much higher than the payoffs of the other, the outcome of the game with higher payoffs determines the outcome of the other game. We also find that when the payoffs are very asymmetric, the outcome where the sum of the payoffs is maximized is a sequential group reciprocity equilibrium.
Indicadores de desarrollo social y su asociación con el desempeño escolar de niños y adolescentes en el estado de Guanajuato
Detalles
Investigación empírica microeconómica que mide la correlación estadística entre rezago social, pobreza multidimensional y el rendimiento en pruebas estandarizadas de educación básica.
Impacto de la anemia e indicadores de desarrollo social en el desempeño escolar de niños y adolescentes en el estado de Guanajuato
Detalles
Análisis estadístico transversal enfocado en la desnutrición infantil (anemia) y su impacto directo en el rezago educativo y la deserción escolar en el estado de Guanajuato.
Potencial de desarrollo de las diversas clases de actividad económica de la industria automotriz en las entidades federativas
Detalles
Estudio de geografía económica y análisis industrial sobre los clústeres automotrices en el Bajío y norte de México, evaluando su encadenamiento productivo y valor agregado.
Producing energy in a stochastic environment: Switching from non-renewable to renewable resources
Abstract / Resumen
In this paper, we study the determinants of switching from nonrenewable natural resource inputs to renewable resource inputs in energy production. We assume that the stocks of both natural resources are stochastic, and that the adoption of renewable resources is costly and irreversible. Our formulation gives raise to an optimal stopping/switching problem that cannot be solved analytically, then we turn to numerical simulations. Our results suggest that the optimal switching time depends not only on the uncertainty parameters, but also on energy demand, costs, and the relative productivity of the resources.
Using Chebyshev Polynomials to Approximate Partial Differential Equations: A Reply
Abstract / Resumen
Caporale and Cerrato (Comput Econ 35(3):235–244, 2010) propose a simple method based on Chebyshev approximation and Chebyshev nodes to approximate partial differential equations (PDEs). However, they suggest not to use Chebyshev nodes when dealing with optimal stopping problems. Here, we use the same optimal stopping example to show that Chebyshev polynomials and Chebyshev nodes can still be successfully used together if we solve the model in a matrix environment.
Energy-saving Technology Adoption under Uncertainty in the Residential Sector
Abstract / Resumen
Home renovation is generally asserted to be a highly effective means for households to lower expenditures on energy. In this sense, home renovation can also be thought as a means to reduce GHG emissions. In this paper we consider a homeowner who makes an irreversible energy-saving investment in an uncertain environment. In a general equilibrium framework, we solve the program of a representative consumer who uses his wealth to invest in the energy-saving technology, to save or to consume energy goods and non-energy goods. Resolution is analytical in a zero discounting case and numerical for the general case, based on collocation and Cheby shev polynomials. In particular, we show that the usual explanation of the energy paradox based on the existence of an option value in partial equilibrium is no longer valid when the analysis is extended to a general equilibrium framework.